Cubs's Starting Pitcher Alec Mills with a Predicted Win Over the Odds Favorite Cardinals

Fri, Sep 27, 2019 | Emma Botos


Alec Mills
Minda Haas Kuhlmann on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 27, 2019 -- On the road, the Cubs take the Cardinals for a 67.01% likelihood to win based on the Snoozle MLB model.

This game is a match up between the Cubs's Alec Mills and the Cardinals's Dakota Hudson. Alec Mills is estimated to have 2.314 earned runs, 21.922 outs, and 7.879 strike outs. Our model forecasts the Cardinals pitcher will have an outing for 6.252 innings, allowing 3.178 earned runs, with a 3.296 walks.

Expected in today's lineup will be top hitters Willson Contreras and Tommy Edman from Cubs and Cardinals, respectively. Willson Contreras is forecast to bring in 0.894 RBIs and 0.749 runs scored, with an 0.371 OBP and 1.189 Ks. The Cardinals's Tommy Edman is estimated to score 0.641 run, 0.497 RBIs and have a 0.347 OBP.

According to the +107 ML away odds and an predicted 67.01% chance to win, the Cubs are the best value for the money line. Based on the prediction model's over 63.23% likelihood and -105 odds, the over line with 8.5 runs is the best value.

Posted at Fri, September 27, 2019 13:05:19 UTC