Chiefs with a Forecasted Win Over the Broncos

Thu, Oct 17, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-10-18 -- The visiting Chiefs has an estimated 55.7% chance to overcome the Broncos based on our football model.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Chiefs have an average of 20.3 points for the game. Our model forecasts Chiefs will pass for 1.4 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions against the Broncos defense on a forecasted 26.0 competitions with 44.5 attempts for 261.1 yards. The Chiefs are predicted to run for 163.4 yards on 26.9 attempts with an estimated 0.8 touchdowns.

The Broncos have an average of 17.4 points in our model for the game. The Broncos are estimated from the model to throw for 226.5 yards on 37.2 attempts for 23.1 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 1.2 touchdowns and 2.2 interceptions. The model estimates the Broncos will run on 27.1 attempts against the Chiefs with an estimated total of 109.9 yards and 0.6 rushing touchdowns.

Based on the odds and probabilities to cover the spread, there is no good value on the ATS for the Chiefs (-3.5) at the Broncos game. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 56.7% over estimate and -110 line odds for 49.0 runs.

Posted at Thu, October 17, 2019 13:06:18 UTC