Cardinals Predicted to Fall at Home to Nationals Despite Marcell Ozuna's Effort

Wed, Sep 18, 2019 | Emma Botos


Max Scherzer
Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 18, 2019 -- The Cardinals under perform at home with a 79.77% chance to lose against the Nationals based on our model.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Cardinals's Adam Wainwright and the Nationals's Max Scherzer. Our model forecasts the Cardinals pitcher will have an outing for 6.122 innings, allowing 3.461 earned runs, with a 3.081 walk. The Snoozle model estimates the Nationals pitcher will have an outing for 7.185 innings, allowing 1.586 earned runs, with 2.352 walks.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Marcell Ozuna and Anthony Rendon from Cardinals and Nationals, respectively. According to our game model, Marcell Ozuna is estimated to bring in 0.480 RBIs and 0.399 runs scored, with an 0.270 OBP and 0.874 Ks. Anthony Rendon is forecast to bring in 0.930 RBIs and 0.973 runs scored, with an 0.433 OBP and 0.687 Ks.

With -161 money line odds and a estimated 79.77% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Nationals over the Cardinals. Based on the prediction model's over 62.19% likelihood and -103 odds, the over line with 7.5 runs is the best value.

Posted at Wed, September 18, 2019 06:53:59 MST