Cardinals Hurler Daniel Poncedeleon Expected Loser at Home Against Reds

Sun, Sep 1, 2019 | Emma Botos


Marcel Ozuna of the St.Louis Cardinals in 2018.
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September 1, 2019 -- The Cardinals under perform at home with a 59.33% chance to lose against the Reds based on our model.

The hosting Cardinals have Daniel Poncedeleon in the rotation against the Reds's pitcher Luis Castillo. Our model forecasts the Cardinals pitcher will have an outing for 6.899 innings, allowing 2.043 earned runs, with a 2.339 walks. The Snoozle model estimates the Reds pitcher will have an outing for 6.849 innings, allowing 1.688 earned runs, with 2.708 walks.

The Cardinals's Marcell Ozuna and the Reds's Aristides Aquino will duel it out from the batter's box. Based on the Snoozle model, Marcell Ozuna is predicted to have 0.579 RBIs and score 0.503 runs over an estimated 4.056 at-bats. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Aristides Aquino is predicted to bat for 0.298 with 1.088 RBIs and 0.789 runs scored.

According to the +150 ML away odds and an predicted 59.33% chance to win, the Reds are the best value for the money line. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 63.95% over estimate and -120 line odds for 8.5 runs.

Posted at Sun, September 1, 2019 13:04:25 UTC