Braves Predicted to Fall at Home to Underdog Cardinals Despite Freddie Freeman's Effort

Thu, Oct 3, 2019 | Emma Botos

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Miles Mikolas pitching for the St.Louis Cardinals in 2018.
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October 3, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Braves are predicted with a 52.75% to lose at home against the Cardinals.

Likely starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel for the Braves will be matched up with the Cardinals probable starter Miles Mikolas. Dallas Keuchel is estimated from the model to throw for 6.556 innings, allowing 2.592 earned runs, with 7.091 K. The Cardinals's Miles Mikolas is predicted to throw for 6.556 innings, allowing 2.563 earned runs, with 5.383 Ks.

In a hitting matchup, Freddie Freeman of the Braves will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Marcell Ozuna. Based on the Snoozle model, Freddie Freeman 1B is predicted to have 0.665 RBIs and score 0.674 runs over an estimated 4.136 at-bats. The Cardinals's Marcell Ozuna from the plate is forecast to score 0.583 runs, 0.718 RBIs and have a 0.337 OBP.

According to the +120 ML away odds and an predicted 52.75% chance to win, the Cardinals are the best value for the money line. With a predicted 53.46% likelihood and -109 odds at 9.0 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Thu, October 3, 2019 13:01:08 UTC