Brandon Lowe's Stick is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Rays Over the Astros

Mon, Oct 7, 2019 | Emma Botos

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Zack Greinke
jnashboulden on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

October 7, 2019 -- The Rays have a 57.01% likelihood to fall to the Astros with a based on our model.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Rays's Charlie Morton and the Astros's Zack Greinke. Charlie Morton is estimated from the model to throw for 6.595 innings, allowing 2.555 earned runs, with 5.583 Ks. The Astros's Zack Greinke is predicted to throw for 6.728 innings, allowing 2.312 earned runs, with 6.621 K.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Brandon Lowe and Yordan Alvarez from Rays and Astros, respectively. The Rays's Brandon Lowe is estimated to score 0.497 runs, 0.588 RBIs and have a 0.307 OBP. Yordan Alvarez is forecast to bring in 0.785 RBIs and 0.681 run scored, with an 0.369 OBP and 1.180 Ks.

There is no best value for Astros -148 at Rays +129 matchup based on our model's game predictions. With an over/under of 7.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 68.77% over likelihood and -113 odds.

Posted at Mon, October 7, 2019 13:01:23 UTC