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Pirates (+215) at Brewers (-258)
Over/Under: 9.5 (-115/-105)
Game Pick: Brewers (Probablity Correct: 75.04%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 58.87%) CORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Brewers | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 22, 2019 05:32:48 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 24.96%
Prob Home Team Wins: 75.04%
Average Comb Score: 9.05
Median Comb Score: 9.00
Std Comb Score: 4.38
Prob Over: 41.13%
Prob Under: 58.87%
Brewers Led By Pitcher Brandon Woodruff at Home Expected to Beat the Pirates
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Trevor Williams of the Pittsburgh Pirates, April 15, 2017.
D. Benjamin Miller License
September 22, 2019 -- The Brewers are forecasted to win over the visiting Pirates based a 63.70% win prediction from the MLB model.
On the mound for the Brewers will be Brandon Woodruff paired against Trevor Williams. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Brandon Woodruff will have 2.197 earned runs, a predicted 22.138 outs, and 5.867 strike outs. The Pirates's Trevor Williams is predicted to throw for 6.525 innings, allowing 2.652 earned runs, with 7.147 Ks.
In a hitting matchup, Mike Moustakas of the Brewers will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Jose Osuna. The Brewers's Mike Moustakas 3B is estimated to score 0.700 runs, 0.808 RBIs and have a 0.340 OBP. The Pirates's Jose Osuna from the plate is forecast to score 0.449 runs, 0.573 RBIs and have a 0.282 OBP.
With +245 money line odds and a estimated 36.30% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Pirates over the Brewers. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 62.16% over estimate and -114 line odds for 9.0 runs.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 13:05:38 UTC
Pirates Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Tucker (SS) | 4.43 | 0.41 | 0.84 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.185 | 0.238 | 0.323 |
| Bryan Reynolds (CF) | 4.21 | 0.51 | 1.26 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.293 | 0.357 | 0.474 |
| Adam Frazier (2B) | 4.18 | 0.36 | 1.09 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.254 | 0.310 | 0.385 |
| Jose Osuna (1B) | 4.17 | 0.41 | 1.03 | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.242 | 0.284 | 0.434 |
| Pablo Reyes (LF) | 3.97 | 0.28 | 0.71 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.175 | 0.242 | 0.273 |
| Kevin Kramer (RF) | 3.77 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.205 | 0.287 | 0.205 |
| Jacob Stallings (C) | 3.73 | 0.32 | 0.94 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.245 | 0.312 | 0.370 |
| Erik Gonzalez (3B) | 3.69 | 0.20 | 0.78 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.207 | 0.260 | 0.245 |
| Trevor Williams (P) | 3.55 | 0.19 | 0.70 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.192 | 0.226 | 0.192 |
Brewers Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham (RF) | 4.57 | 0.80 | 1.28 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.276 | 0.361 | 0.499 |
| Yasmani Grandal (C) | 4.10 | 0.83 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 0.94 | 0.257 | 0.399 | 0.487 |
| Mike Moustakas (3B) | 4.45 | 0.77 | 1.24 | 0.84 | 0.48 | 0.272 | 0.349 | 0.549 |
| Keston Hiura (2B) | 4.35 | 0.77 | 1.39 | 0.89 | 0.40 | 0.315 | 0.386 | 0.600 |
| Eric Thames (1B) | 4.04 | 0.66 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.263 | 0.371 | 0.518 |
| Lorenzo Cain (CF) | 4.19 | 0.48 | 1.16 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.269 | 0.339 | 0.384 |
| Ben Gamel (LF) | 3.98 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.264 | 0.353 | 0.401 |
| Orlando Arcia (SS) | 4.02 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.227 | 0.293 | 0.358 |
| Brandon Woodruff (P) | 4.10 | 0.38 | 1.18 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.283 | 0.281 | 0.329 |
Pirates Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 20.38 | 7.71 | 3.27 | 0.41 | 3.10 | 6.26 | 24.83% |
Brewers Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 22.63 | 0.00 | 2.26 | 0.21 | 1.92 | 6.97 | 73.53% |
Pirates Hurler Trevor Williams Effort Not Enough Against Brewers, 3-4
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Trevor Williams of the Pittsburgh Pirates, April 15, 2017.
D. Benjamin Miller License
September 22, 2019 -- The visiting Pirates lose to the home town Brewers 3 to 4 in demoralizing loss.
The Pirates's starting pitcher Trevor Williams led team on the mound. The Brewers had 6 strikeouts against Trevor Williams. Trevor Williams allowed 2 earned runs over 5.0 innings pitched. Pirates's starter allowed 3 hits and 2 walks. The pitcher allowed 0.342 OBP.
Slugger Keston Hiura's leadership helped the Brewers against Pirates. With 4 at bats, he had a game 0.369 OBP. The Brewers' top hitter contributed 0 RBI and scored 1 run in the home outing. Leading the team in slugging for the season, Keston Hiura had a 0.574 slugging percentage. At the plate, the slugger had 0 strikeouts.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 21:31:38 UTC
Pirates Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Tucker (SS) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.211 | 0.266 | 0.361 |
| Bryan Reynolds (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.318 | 0.381 | 0.509 |
| Adam Frazier (2B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.279 | 0.337 | 0.421 |
| Jose Osuna (1B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.264 | 0.306 | 0.469 |
| Pablo Reyes (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.189 | 0.261 | 0.295 |
| Kevin Kramer (RF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.270 | 0.167 |
| Jacob Stallings (C) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.269 | 0.339 | 0.404 |
| Erik Gonzalez (3B) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.235 | 0.295 | 0.277 |
| Trevor Williams (P) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.176 | 0.222 | 0.176 |
Brewers Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham (RF) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.263 | 0.348 | 0.474 |
| Yasmani Grandal (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.249 | 0.382 | 0.470 |
| Mike Moustakas (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.256 | 0.329 | 0.521 |
| Keston Hiura (2B) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.301 | 0.369 | 0.574 |
| Eric Thames (1B) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.352 | 0.503 |
| Lorenzo Cain (CF) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.252 | 0.318 | 0.358 |
| Ben Gamel (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.375 |
| Orlando Arcia (SS) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.216 | 0.278 | 0.345 |
| Brandon Woodruff (P) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.267 | 0.283 | 0.356 |