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Nationals (-213) at Marlins (+183)
Over/Under: 9.0 (-107/-113)
Game Pick: Nationals (Probablity Correct: 76.95%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 64.08%) CORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Marlins | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 22, 2019 03:32:58 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 76.95%
Prob Home Team Wins: 23.05%
Average Comb Score: 8.48
Median Comb Score: 8.00
Std Comb Score: 4.21
Prob Over: 35.92%
Prob Under: 64.08%
Marlins Hurler Pablo Lopez Forecasted Loser at Home Against Nationals
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Austin Voth on July 13, 2018
D. Benjamin Miller License
September 22, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Marlins are predicted with a 72.07% to lose at home against the Nationals.
Probable starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Austin Voth duel it out for the Marlins and Nationals, respectively. The Marlins starting hurler is predicted to throw for 20.697 outs, allow 3.000 earned runs, and a 0.005 probability of a complete game. The Nationals starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 22.577 outs, allow 1.970 earned runs, and a 0.027 probability of a complete game.
Hitters Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins and Anthony Rendon from the Nationals will lead the offense for their teams. Jorge Alfaro is forecast to bat for 0.253 with 0.452 RBIs and 0.343 runs scored. The Nationals's Anthony Rendon from the plate is forecast to score 0.811 run, 0.784 RBIs and have a 0.398 OBP.
According to the -213 ML away odds and an predicted 72.07% chance to win, the Nationals are the best value for the money line. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 60.28% over estimate and -113 line odds for 9.0 runs.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 13:05:38 UTC
Nationals Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (SS) | 4.72 | 0.73 | 1.35 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.280 | 0.340 | 0.462 |
| Adam Eaton (RF) | 4.46 | 0.68 | 1.21 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.266 | 0.346 | 0.412 |
| Anthony Rendon (3B) | 4.28 | 0.82 | 1.35 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.311 | 0.401 | 0.587 |
| Juan Soto (LF) | 4.08 | 0.69 | 1.14 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.273 | 0.385 | 0.531 |
| Howie Kendrick (1B) | 4.35 | 0.62 | 1.44 | 0.86 | 0.33 | 0.324 | 0.377 | 0.547 |
| Brian Dozier (2B) | 3.99 | 0.49 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.220 | 0.325 | 0.400 |
| Victor Robles (CF) | 4.07 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 0.241 | 0.310 | 0.399 |
| Yan Gomes (C) | 3.88 | 0.45 | 0.85 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.213 | 0.304 | 0.359 |
| Austin Voth (P) | 3.88 | 0.42 | 0.86 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.216 | 0.267 | 0.342 |
Marlins Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magneuris Sierra (CF) | 4.44 | 0.28 | 0.99 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.218 | 0.245 | 0.227 |
| Jon Berti (SS) | 4.05 | 0.42 | 1.02 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 0.245 | 0.321 | 0.383 |
| Starlin Castro (3B) | 4.21 | 0.38 | 1.08 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 0.251 | 0.283 | 0.402 |
| Jorge Alfaro (C) | 4.01 | 0.36 | 1.01 | 0.47 | 0.19 | 0.247 | 0.296 | 0.389 |
| Isan Diaz (2B) | 3.75 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.156 | 0.246 | 0.264 |
| Harold Ramírez (LF) | 3.88 | 0.30 | 1.01 | 0.36 | 0.17 | 0.254 | 0.293 | 0.380 |
| Austin Dean (1B) | 3.80 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.204 | 0.242 | 0.351 |
| Lewis Brinson (RF) | 3.60 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.169 | 0.225 | 0.218 |
| Pablo Lopez (P) | 3.50 | 0.20 | 0.72 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.201 | 0.240 | 0.230 |
Nationals Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Voth | 23.13 | 7.16 | 1.79 | 0.32 | 1.70 | 7.14 | 76.37% |
Marlins Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 20.68 | 0.00 | 3.09 | 0.44 | 3.01 | 6.36 | 22.47% |
Starlin Castro's Stick Not Enough for the Nationals Against the Marlins, 3-5
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Starlin Castro
Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA License
September 22, 2019 -- The Nationals lose to the Marlins 3 to 5 on the road.
Slugger Starlin Castro's leadership helped the Marlins against Nationals. With 3 at bats, he had a game 0.300 OBP. Leading the team in slugging for the season, Starlin Castro had a 0.435 slugging percentage. The Marlins' top hitter contributed 2 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing.
Slugger Juan Soto could not achieve the Nationals road win over the Marlins's pitching. At the plate, he had 0 strikeouts. The Nationals hitter had 0 RBI and scored 1 run on the road. He had a 0.559 slugging percentage in the game.
Even Anthony Rendon could not help Nationals on offense against the Marlins. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.609. He had 0 Ks in the game. The Nationals hitter had 1 RBI and scored 0 runs in the road outing. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.325. In 5 at bats, the hitter had a 0.410 OBP.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 20:32:24 UTC
Nationals Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (SS) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.291 | 0.349 | 0.477 |
| Adam Eaton (RF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.280 | 0.363 | 0.427 |
| Anthony Rendon (3B) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.325 | 0.410 | 0.609 |
| Juan Soto (LF) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.287 | 0.403 | 0.559 |
| Howie Kendrick (1B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.346 | 0.394 | 0.573 |
| Brian Dozier (2B) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.233 | 0.337 | 0.421 |
| Victor Robles (CF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.255 | 0.327 | 0.425 |
| Yan Gomes (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.222 | 0.317 | 0.370 |
| Austin Voth (P) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.143 | 0.143 | 0.143 |
Marlins Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magneuris Sierra (CF) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.350 | 0.381 | 0.425 |
| Jon Berti (SS) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.263 | 0.344 | 0.411 |
| Starlin Castro (3B) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.271 | 0.300 | 0.435 |
| Jorge Alfaro (C) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.261 | 0.309 | 0.406 |
| Isan Diaz (2B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.263 | 0.287 |
| Harold Ramírez (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.271 | 0.311 | 0.407 |
| Austin Dean (1B) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.224 | 0.261 | 0.401 |
| Lewis Brinson (RF) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.185 | 0.251 | 0.237 |
| Pablo Lopez (P) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.182 | 0.182 | 0.242 |