Advertisement
Padres (+155) at Reds (-165)
Over/Under: 8.5 (-115/-105)
Game Pick: Reds (Probablity Correct: 60.94%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 62.12%) CORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Reds | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Aug 20, 2019 08:32:35 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 39.06%
Prob Home Team Wins: 60.94%
Average Comb Score: 7.67
Median Comb Score: 7.00
Std Comb Score: 3.89
Prob Over: 37.88%
Prob Under: 62.12%
Padres Forecasted to Lose at Home to Reds Despite Manny Machado's Effort
Tue, Aug 20, 2019 | Emma Botos
Sonny Gray
Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA License
August 20, 2019 -- According to the Snoozle model, the visiting Padres have a 57.33% chance to lose to the home town Reds.
Likely visiting starter Cal Quantrill will will duel it out with the Reds probable starter Sonny Gray. The Padres's Cal Quantrill is predicted to throw for 6.820 innings, allowing 2.232 earned runs, with 6.816 Ks. Our model forecasts the Reds pitcher will have an outing for 6.964 innings, allowing 1.912 earned runs, with a 2.696 walks.
In a hitting matchup, Manny Machado of the Padres will see who can bring in more runs against the at home hitter Aristides Aquino. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Manny Machado is predicted to bat for 0.231 with 0.538 RBIs and 0.476 runs scored. According to our game model, Aristides Aquino is estimated to bring in 0.960 RBIs and 0.751 run scored, with an 0.341 OBP and 1.018 Ks.
With +150 money line odds and a estimated 42.67% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Padres over the Padres. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 57.82% over estimate and -105 line odds for 8.5 runs.
Posted at Tue, August 20, 2019 13:04:08 UTC
Padres Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Garcia (2B) | 4.19 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 0.235 | 0.322 | 0.338 |
| Josh Naylor (RF) | 4.27 | 0.45 | 0.91 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.209 | 0.272 | 0.359 |
| Manny Machado (3B) | 4.12 | 0.46 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.232 | 0.299 | 0.417 |
| Eric Hosmer (1B) | 4.16 | 0.37 | 1.06 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.249 | 0.293 | 0.392 |
| Francisco Mejia (LF) | 4.07 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.241 | 0.284 | 0.392 |
| Manuel Margot (CF) | 3.83 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.212 | 0.282 | 0.357 |
| Luis Urias (SS) | 3.46 | 0.25 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 0.161 | 0.292 | 0.245 |
| Austin Hedges (C) | 3.74 | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.163 | 0.215 | 0.286 |
| Cal Quantrill (P) | 3.56 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.166 | 0.225 | 0.249 |
Reds Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh VanMeter (CF) | 4.30 | 0.59 | 1.17 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.266 | 0.350 | 0.423 |
| Freddy Galvis (SS) | 4.56 | 0.52 | 1.12 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 0.240 | 0.271 | 0.397 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 4.14 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.230 | 0.311 | 0.468 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4.10 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 0.37 | 0.270 | 0.338 | 0.654 |
| Tucker Barnhart (LF) | 3.86 | 0.41 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.211 | 0.306 | 0.351 |
| Jose Iglesias (2B) | 4.14 | 0.36 | 1.16 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.273 | 0.302 | 0.387 |
| Nick Senzel (1B) | 3.88 | 0.38 | 0.97 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.245 | 0.297 | 0.408 |
| Brian O'Grady (C) | 3.79 | 0.32 | 0.86 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.221 | 0.277 | 0.336 |
| Sonny Gray (P) | 3.65 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.178 | 0.218 | 0.265 |
Padres Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 22.08 | 6.96 | 2.41 | 0.25 | 2.17 | 6.80 | 39.13% |
Reds Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 22.79 | 7.22 | 2.49 | 0.31 | 1.80 | 7.04 | 60.34% |
Manny Machado Effort Cannot Pull the Padres Over the Reds, 2-3
Wed, Aug 21, 2019 | Emma Botos
August 20, 2019 -- Cal Quantrill pitching outing ends in a close loss for the Padres at the Reds, 2 to 3.
Manny Machado led the Padres in hitting against the Reds's pitching. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.470. The Padres hitter had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the road outing. He had a 0.334 OBP with 4 at bats.
Top Reds hitter Nick Senzel's presence helped for win at home over Padres's pitching. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.268. The Reds' top hitter contributed 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing. The team's leading slugger had a 0.443 slugging percentage in the game. He gave up 0 Ks in the game. He had a 0.324 OBP with 3 at bats.
Posted at Wed, August 21, 2019 02:31:33 UTC
Padres Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Garcia (2B) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.268 | 0.363 | 0.386 |
| Josh Naylor (RF) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.253 | 0.322 | 0.442 |
| Manny Machado (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.266 | 0.334 | 0.470 |
| Eric Hosmer (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.285 | 0.332 | 0.450 |
| Francisco Mejia (LF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 0.322 | 0.444 |
| Manuel Margot (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.242 | 0.318 | 0.404 |
| Luis Urias (SS) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.183 | 0.325 | 0.279 |
| Austin Hedges (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.194 | 0.254 | 0.340 |
| Cal Quantrill (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | 0.095 | 0.050 |
Reds Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh VanMeter (CF) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.295 | 0.380 | 0.462 |
| Freddy Galvis (SS) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.414 | 0.400 | 0.724 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.254 | 0.338 | 0.524 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.313 | 0.380 | 0.844 |
| Tucker Barnhart (LF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.232 | 0.331 | 0.386 |
| Jose Iglesias (2B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.293 | 0.322 | 0.415 |
| Nick Senzel (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.268 | 0.324 | 0.443 |
| Brian O'Grady (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
| Sonny Gray (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.162 | 0.205 | 0.216 |