Advertisement
Nationals (+132) at Dodgers (-151)
Over/Under: 7.0 (-125/+105)
Game Pick: Dodgers (Probablity Correct: 51.24%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 52.66%) INCORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Oct 09, 2019 10:30:39 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 48.76%
Prob Home Team Wins: 51.24%
Average Comb Score: 7.83
Median Comb Score: 7.00
Std Comb Score: 3.86
Prob Over: 47.34%
Prob Under: 52.66%
Nationals Forecasted to Lose at Home to Dodgers Despite Anthony Rendon's Effort
Wed, Oct 9, 2019 | Emma Botos
Stephen Strasburg
Keith Allison on Flickr License
October 9, 2019 -- On the road, the Nationals has a 50.87% chance to lose to the Dodgers from our Snoozle montecarlo model.
Likely starting pitcher for the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg, will be paired with the hosting Dodgers's pitcher Walker Buehler. The Snoozle model estimates the Nationals pitcher will have an outing for 6.984 innings, allowing 1.827 earned runs, with 2.782 walks. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Walker Buehler will have 2.072 earned runs, a predicted 22.326 outs, and 6.059 strike outs.
Sluggers Anthony Rendon from the Nationals and Will Smith from the Dodgers will lead the their teams from the batter's box. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Anthony Rendon is predicted to bat for 0.263 with 0.518 RBIs and 0.598 runs scored. Based on the Snoozle model, Will Smith is predicted to have 0.544 RBIs and score 0.428 runs over an estimated 3.583 at-bats.
According to the +140 ML away odds and an predicted 49.13% chance to win, the Nationals are the best value for the money line. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 51.38% over estimate and -102 line odds for 7.0 runs.
Posted at Wed, October 9, 2019 13:01:31 UTC
Nationals Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (SS) | 4.48 | 0.54 | 1.12 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.244 | 0.295 | 0.408 |
| Adam Eaton (RF) | 4.19 | 0.49 | 0.96 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.226 | 0.303 | 0.346 |
| Anthony Rendon (3B) | 4.01 | 0.61 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.268 | 0.358 | 0.505 |
| Juan Soto (LF) | 3.83 | 0.52 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.233 | 0.344 | 0.454 |
| Howie Kendrick (2B) | 4.07 | 0.44 | 1.18 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.285 | 0.337 | 0.474 |
| Ryan Zimmerman (1B) | 3.97 | 0.32 | 0.85 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.209 | 0.269 | 0.338 |
| Kurt Suzuki (C) | 3.89 | 0.35 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.23 | 0.216 | 0.271 | 0.399 |
| Michael Taylor (CF) | 3.80 | 0.23 | 0.76 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.195 | 0.243 | 0.286 |
| Stephen Strasburg (P) | 3.77 | 0.17 | 0.49 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.127 | 0.155 | 0.163 |
Dodgers Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (RF) | 4.22 | 0.61 | 0.90 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.207 | 0.289 | 0.449 |
| Max Muncy (2B) | 3.93 | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.207 | 0.322 | 0.427 |
| Justin Turner (3B) | 4.03 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.243 | 0.320 | 0.424 |
| Cody Bellinger (CF) | 3.82 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.257 | 0.353 | 0.533 |
| Matt Beaty (1B) | 4.04 | 0.35 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 0.23 | 0.220 | 0.266 | 0.384 |
| Corey Seager (SS) | 3.86 | 0.34 | 0.87 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.220 | 0.279 | 0.388 |
| Enrique Hernandez (LF) | 3.78 | 0.30 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.193 | 0.252 | 0.336 |
| Will Smith (C) | 3.58 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.209 | 0.287 | 0.473 |
| Walker Buehler (P) | 3.62 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.096 | 0.143 | 0.128 |
Nationals Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Strasburg | 22.67 | 6.61 | 2.75 | 0.37 | 1.80 | 6.99 | 48.84% |
Dodgers Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 22.33 | 6.03 | 2.57 | 0.25 | 2.06 | 6.90 | 50.70% |
Nationals Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 0.348 | 0.429 |
| Adam Eaton (RF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.188 | 0.381 | 0.188 |
| Anthony Rendon (3B) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.412 | 0.455 | 0.765 |
| Juan Soto (LF) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.278 | 0.409 | 0.611 |
| Howie Kendrick (2B) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.400 |
| Ryan Zimmerman (1B) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.571 |
| Kurt Suzuki (C) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.000 |
| Michael Taylor (CF) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.385 | 0.333 |
| Stephen Strasburg (P) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.000 |
Dodgers Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (RF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.267 | 0.353 | 0.600 |
| Max Muncy (2B) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.263 | 0.391 | 0.737 |
| Justin Turner (3B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 0.333 | 0.667 |
| Cody Bellinger (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.211 | 0.286 | 0.263 |
| Matt Beaty (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.375 |
| Corey Seager (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.150 | 0.190 | 0.200 |
| Enrique Hernandez (LF) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.429 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| Will Smith (C) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.077 | 0.250 | 0.077 |
| Walker Buehler (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |