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Phillies (+140) at Braves (-159)
Over/Under: 8.5 (-102/-114)
Game Pick: Braves (Probablity Correct: 58.58%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 52.43%) INCORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Braves | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 19, 2019 02:31:44 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 41.42%
Prob Home Team Wins: 58.58%
Average Comb Score: 8.61
Median Comb Score: 8.00
Std Comb Score: 4.16
Prob Over: 47.57%
Prob Under: 52.43%
Phillies Forecasted to Lose at Home to Braves Despite Bryce Harper's Effort
Thu, Sep 19, 2019 | Emma Botos
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September 19, 2019 -- The Phillies has an estimated 62.21% likelihood to lose to the Braves based on our model.
On the mound for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola matched up against Michael Soroka. The Phillies starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.008 outs, allow 2.661 earned runs, and a 0.007 probability of a complete game. Michael Soroka is estimated from the model to throw for 6.892 innings, allowing 2.068 earned runs, with 6.973 Ks.
The Phillies's Bryce Harper and the Braves's Freddie Freeman will slug it out from the plate. According to our game model, Bryce Harper RF is estimated to have 0.493 RBIs and score 0.548 runs over an estimated 3.925 at-bats. Freddie Freeman 1B is forecast to bat for 0.285 with 0.702 RBIs and 0.729 runs scored.
For this matchup Braves are the best value on the money line bets with on the -159 home ML odds and a forecasted 62.21% chance to win. With an over/under of 8.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 50.97% over likelihood and -102 odds.
Posted at Thu, September 19, 2019 13:03:27 UTC
Phillies Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez (2B) | 4.48 | 0.45 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.247 | 0.298 | 0.356 |
| J.T. Realmuto (C) | 4.37 | 0.51 | 1.08 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.242 | 0.295 | 0.437 |
| Bryce Harper (RF) | 3.93 | 0.54 | 0.91 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.225 | 0.335 | 0.437 |
| Rhys Hoskins (1B) | 3.74 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 0.69 | 0.208 | 0.337 | 0.423 |
| Brad Miller (LF) | 4.03 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.223 | 0.285 | 0.374 |
| Jean Segura (SS) | 4.03 | 0.34 | 1.02 | 0.41 | 0.20 | 0.247 | 0.290 | 0.378 |
| Scott Kingery (3B) | 3.89 | 0.38 | 0.90 | 0.48 | 0.25 | 0.226 | 0.279 | 0.420 |
| Adam Haseley (CF) | 3.72 | 0.31 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.224 | 0.289 | 0.354 |
| Aaron Nola (P) | 3.57 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.164 |
Braves Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF) | 4.32 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.268 | 0.349 | 0.488 |
| Ozzie Albies (2B) | 4.38 | 0.65 | 1.26 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.281 | 0.338 | 0.482 |
| Freddie Freeman (1B) | 4.03 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.287 | 0.380 | 0.540 |
| Adam Duvall (LF) | 4.16 | 0.62 | 1.02 | 0.80 | 0.31 | 0.239 | 0.303 | 0.517 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) | 4.20 | 0.61 | 1.21 | 0.86 | 0.17 | 0.282 | 0.321 | 0.581 |
| Austin Riley (3B) | 4.03 | 0.46 | 0.93 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 0.226 | 0.281 | 0.467 |
| Rafael Ortega (RF) | 3.88 | 0.28 | 0.79 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.198 | 0.263 | 0.271 |
| Tyler Flowers (C) | 3.64 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.214 | 0.304 | 0.392 |
| Michael Soroka (P) | 3.73 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.144 | 0.190 | 0.144 |
Phillies Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 21.86 | 7.33 | 2.43 | 0.43 | 2.28 | 6.74 | 41.54% |
Braves Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 22.34 | 6.84 | 2.77 | 0.26 | 2.07 | 6.89 | 57.60% |
Freddie Freeman Helps the Braves Beat the Phillies By One Run, 5-4
Thu, Sep 19, 2019 | Emma Botos
Ozzie Albies
Thomson200 License
September 19, 2019 -- The Braves squeeze out win against the Phillies in a 5 to 4 victory at home.
Freddie Freeman 1B led the Braves in hitting against the Phillies's pitching. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.299. He had a 0.395 OBP with 3 at bats. He had 0 Ks at the plate against the Phillies. The hitter had a 0.561 slugging in the game.
The Aaron Nola start could not help the Braves from a win. Throwing 57 strikes in a 79 pitch outing for 4 strikeouts. The hurler gave up 5 earned runs in 5.0 innings. A 3.75 ERA and 0.308 OBP in the appearance against the Braves. Phillies's starter allowed 9 hits and 2 walks.
Even Bryce Harper could not help Phillies on offense against the Braves. The Phillies hitter had 0 RBI and scored 1 run in the road outing. At the plate, he had 0 strikeouts. He had a 0.373 OBP with 4 at bats. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.497.
Posted at Thu, September 19, 2019 19:32:21 UTC
Phillies Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez (2B) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.285 | 0.339 | 0.409 |
| J.T. Realmuto (C) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 0.325 | 0.490 |
| Bryce Harper (RF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.255 | 0.373 | 0.497 |
| Rhys Hoskins (1B) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.236 | 0.375 | 0.480 |
| Brad Miller (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.212 | 0.302 | 0.435 |
| Jean Segura (SS) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.283 | 0.328 | 0.428 |
| Scott Kingery (3B) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.258 | 0.315 | 0.480 |
| Adam Haseley (CF) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.263 | 0.330 | 0.413 |
| Aaron Nola (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.123 | 0.206 | 0.158 |
Braves Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF) | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.279 | 0.363 | 0.513 |
| Ozzie Albies (2B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.293 | 0.350 | 0.500 |
| Freddie Freeman (1B) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.299 | 0.395 | 0.561 |
| Adam Duvall (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.253 | 0.312 | 0.535 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.221 | 0.277 | 0.389 |
| Austin Riley (3B) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.239 | 0.292 | 0.502 |
| Rafael Ortega (RF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.205 | 0.279 | 0.282 |
| Tyler Flowers (C) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.230 | 0.319 | 0.418 |
| Michael Soroka (P) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.080 | 0.148 | 0.080 |