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Reds (-105) at Pirates (-105)
Over/Under: 9.0 (-115/-105)
Game Pick: Reds (Probablity Correct: 70.63%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: OVER (Probablity Correct: 77.08%) INCORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Pirates | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Aug 23, 2019 07:32:41 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 70.63%
Prob Home Team Wins: 29.37%
Average Comb Score: 13.98
Median Comb Score: 13.00
Std Comb Score: 5.69
Prob Over: 77.08%
Prob Under: 22.92%
Pirates Predicted to Fall at Home to Reds Despite Josh Bell's Effort
Fri, Aug 23, 2019 | Emma Botos
Anthony DeSclafani
Erik Drost on Flickr License
August 23, 2019 -- The Pirates have a 75.01% likelihood to fall to the Reds with a based on our model.
Probable starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Anthony DeSclafani duel it out for the Pirates and Reds, respectively. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Mitch Keller will have 4.104 earned runs, a predicted 19.057 outs, and 6.943 strike outs. The Reds's Anthony DeSclafani is predicted to throw for 6.518 innings, allowing 2.831 earned runs, with 5.583 Ks.
In a hitting matchup, Josh Bell of the Pirates will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Aristides Aquino. The Pirates's Josh Bell is estimated to score 0.675 runs, 0.780 RBIs and have a 0.356 OBP. According to our game model, Aristides Aquino is estimated to have 1.607 RBIs and score 1.261 run over an estimated 4.615 at-bats.
The Reds are the best value for the money line based on the -105 odds and a forecasted 75.01% win estimate. With an over/under of 9.0 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 73.85% over likelihood and -115 odds.
Posted at Fri, August 23, 2019 13:03:44 UTC
Reds Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh VanMeter (LF) | 4.70 | 1.08 | 1.69 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 0.352 | 0.445 | 0.547 |
| Freddy Galvis (2B) | 5.10 | 0.97 | 1.70 | 0.94 | 0.29 | 0.326 | 0.362 | 0.547 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 4.54 | 1.07 | 1.41 | 1.09 | 0.65 | 0.304 | 0.401 | 0.619 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4.54 | 1.21 | 1.65 | 1.61 | 0.56 | 0.356 | 0.433 | 0.838 |
| Tucker Barnhart (C) | 4.29 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.280 | 0.388 | 0.465 |
| Jose Iglesias (SS) | 4.69 | 0.81 | 1.68 | 0.75 | 0.22 | 0.350 | 0.384 | 0.505 |
| Derek Dietrich (1B) | 3.80 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.55 | 0.254 | 0.412 | 0.636 |
| Nick Senzel (CF) | 4.27 | 0.73 | 1.40 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.320 | 0.380 | 0.529 |
| Anthony DeSclafani (P) | 4.51 | 0.55 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.297 | 0.290 | 0.384 |
Pirates Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Newman (SS) | 4.73 | 0.63 | 1.40 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 0.290 | 0.333 | 0.403 |
| Bryan Reynolds (LF) | 4.38 | 0.73 | 1.42 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.317 | 0.391 | 0.506 |
| Starling Marte (CF) | 4.50 | 0.64 | 1.30 | 0.72 | 0.19 | 0.282 | 0.328 | 0.491 |
| Josh Bell (1B) | 4.11 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.270 | 0.359 | 0.563 |
| Colin Moran (3B) | 4.28 | 0.53 | 1.22 | 0.63 | 0.29 | 0.276 | 0.324 | 0.434 |
| Jose Osuna (RF) | 4.16 | 0.63 | 1.23 | 0.74 | 0.27 | 0.289 | 0.336 | 0.566 |
| Adam Frazier (2B) | 4.01 | 0.44 | 1.05 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.255 | 0.315 | 0.378 |
| Jacob Stallings (C) | 3.88 | 0.48 | 1.04 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 0.259 | 0.326 | 0.391 |
| Mitch Keller (P) | 3.77 | 0.44 | 0.88 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.228 | 0.285 | 0.365 |
Reds Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 20.99 | 5.89 | 2.31 | 0.37 | 2.94 | 6.44 | 67.42% |
Pirates Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 19.11 | 0.21 | 2.98 | 0.59 | 3.96 | 5.83 | 25.92% |
Reds Loses by a Run to Pirates, 2-3
Sat, Aug 24, 2019 | Emma Botos
Anthony DeSclafani
Erik Drost on Flickr License
August 23, 2019 -- The Reds had a narrow loss to the Pirates 2 to 3 on the road.
Starting on the road, Anthony DeSclafani's performance could not help the Reds. Reds's starter allowed 5 hits and 2 walks. The pitcher allowed 0.319 OBP. Anthony DeSclafani allowed 1 earned runs over 6.0 innings pitched. Throwing 54 strikes in a 80 pitch outing for 4 strikeouts.
Slugger Starling Marte's leadership helped the Pirates against Reds. He had a 0.333 OBP with 4 at bats. The Pirates' top hitter contributed 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing. The team's leading slugger had a 0.500 slugging percentage in the game. He had a game batting average of 0.290.
The Pirates's starting pitcher Mitch Keller led team on the mound. The Pirates pitcher had a 0.423 OBP for his appearance. He gave up 1 earned runs over 6.0 innings pitched. Throwing 65 strikes in a 91 pitch outing for 9 strikeouts. The Pirates hurler threw for 6 hits and 1 walk allowed.
Posted at Sat, August 24, 2019 02:32:23 UTC
Reds Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh VanMeter (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.295 | 0.380 | 0.453 |
| Freddy Galvis (2B) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.444 | 0.447 | 0.750 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.254 | 0.337 | 0.520 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.338 | 0.405 | 0.873 |
| Tucker Barnhart (C) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.231 | 0.332 | 0.385 |
| Jose Iglesias (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.294 | 0.323 | 0.421 |
| Derek Dietrich (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.204 | 0.345 | 0.507 |
| Nick Senzel (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.261 | 0.316 | 0.431 |
| Anthony DeSclafani (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.146 | 0.146 | 0.146 |
Pirates Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Newman (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.294 | 0.337 | 0.406 |
| Bryan Reynolds (LF) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.324 | 0.397 | 0.515 |
| Starling Marte (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.290 | 0.333 | 0.500 |
| Josh Bell (1B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.361 | 0.570 |
| Colin Moran (3B) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.283 | 0.331 | 0.438 |
| Jose Osuna (RF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.306 | 0.349 | 0.582 |
| Adam Frazier (2B) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.264 | 0.324 | 0.388 |
| Jacob Stallings (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.268 | 0.333 | 0.398 |
| Mitch Keller (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |