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Brewers (+125) at Diamondbacks (-135)
Over/Under: 9.0 (+105/-125)
Game Pick: Diamondbacks (Probablity Correct: 56.42%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 68.89%) INCORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Diamondbacks | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Jul 20, 2019 09:31:36 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 43.58%
Prob Home Team Wins: 56.42%
Average Comb Score: 7.95
Median Comb Score: 7.00
Std Comb Score: 3.98
Prob Over: 31.11%
Prob Under: 68.89%
Diamondbacks Led By Pitcher Zack Greinke at Home Expected to Beat the Brewers
Sat, Jul 20, 2019 | Emma Botos
Zack Greinke
jnashboulden on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License
July 20, 2019 -- In a matchup between hitters Eduardo Escobar and Christian Yelich, our model estimates the Diamondbacks have an estimated 55.74% likelihood of defeating the Brewers.
The hosting Diamondbacks have Zack Greinke in the rotation against the Brewers's pitcher Gio Gonzalez. Our model forecasts the Diamondbacks pitcher will have an outing for 7.045 innings, allowing 1.761 earned runs, with a 2.719 walks. The Brewers starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.937 outs, allow 2.323 earned runs, and a 0.017 probability of a complete game.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks's top hitter, will slug it out against Keston Hiura in today's game. Based on the Snoozle model, Ketel Marte is predicted to have 0.581 RBIs and score 0.609 runs over an estimated 4.431 at-bats. According to our game model, Keston Hiura is estimated to have 0.546 RBIs and score 0.411 run over an estimated 3.783 at-bats.
Based on the odds and win probabilities, there is no good value on the money line for the Brewers +125 at Diamondbacks -135 game. The over/under line of 9.0 runs with -125 over odds and a predicted 67.19% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.
Posted at Sat, July 20, 2019 07:03:37 MST
Brewers Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasmani Grandal (C) | 4.07 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.195 | 0.306 | 0.386 |
| Christian Yelich (RF) | 3.99 | 0.67 | 1.11 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.270 | 0.368 | 0.581 |
| Ryan Braun (LF) | 4.27 | 0.40 | 0.94 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.214 | 0.255 | 0.369 |
| Mike Moustakas (3B) | 4.08 | 0.45 | 0.86 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.207 | 0.266 | 0.427 |
| Keston Hiura (2B) | 3.99 | 0.42 | 1.05 | 0.56 | 0.23 | 0.258 | 0.313 | 0.475 |
| Eric Thames (1B) | 3.70 | 0.32 | 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.210 | 0.303 | 0.409 |
| Tyler Saladino (SS) | 4.01 | 0.12 | 0.61 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.149 | 0.158 | 0.189 |
| Gio Gonzalez (P) | 3.45 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 0.51 | 0.120 | 0.230 | 0.120 |
| Ben Gamel (CF) | 3.48 | 0.33 | 0.68 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.190 | 0.266 | 0.292 |
Diamondbacks Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Locastro (LF) | 4.16 | 0.49 | 0.96 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.225 | 0.335 | 0.289 |
| Ketel Marte (CF) | 4.43 | 0.61 | 1.26 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.279 | 0.328 | 0.506 |
| Eduardo Escobar (3B) | 4.30 | 0.52 | 1.11 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 0.252 | 0.307 | 0.479 |
| Christian Walker (1B) | 4.10 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.223 | 0.297 | 0.437 |
| Adam Jones (RF) | 4.12 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 0.237 | 0.287 | 0.389 |
| Wilmer Flores (2B) | 4.04 | 0.35 | 1.02 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.247 | 0.293 | 0.349 |
| Nick Ahmed (SS) | 3.91 | 0.38 | 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.226 | 0.279 | 0.360 |
| Carson Kelly (C) | 3.63 | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.236 | 0.321 | 0.467 |
| Zack Greinke (P) | 3.74 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 0.220 | 0.249 | 0.385 |
Brewers Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gio Gonzalez | 22.06 | 5.41 | 2.09 | 0.58 | 2.36 | 6.79 | 43.27% |
Diamondbacks Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 22.81 | 6.87 | 2.66 | 0.34 | 1.76 | 7.06 | 55.95% |
Currently there is no recap, please come back later.
Brewers Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasmani Grandal (C) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.253 | 0.370 | 0.500 |
| Christian Yelich (RF) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.337 | 0.436 | 0.721 |
| Ryan Braun (LF) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.277 | 0.328 | 0.477 |
| Mike Moustakas (3B) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.267 | 0.337 | 0.553 |
| Keston Hiura (2B) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.328 | 0.387 | 0.599 |
| Eric Thames (1B) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.265 | 0.371 | 0.522 |
| Tyler Saladino (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.102 | 0.120 | 0.102 |
| Gio Gonzalez (P) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| Ben Gamel (CF) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.251 | 0.338 | 0.384 |
Diamondbacks Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Locastro (LF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.248 | 0.362 | 0.320 |
| Ketel Marte (CF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.318 | 0.368 | 0.576 |
| Eduardo Escobar (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.288 | 0.340 | 0.548 |
| Christian Walker (1B) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.260 | 0.342 | 0.502 |
| Adam Jones (RF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.267 | 0.317 | 0.436 |
| Wilmer Flores (2B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.329 | 0.389 |
| Nick Ahmed (SS) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.265 | 0.318 | 0.426 |
| Carson Kelly (C) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.268 | 0.355 | 0.526 |
| Zack Greinke (P) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.261 | 0.292 | 0.565 |