Wed, Jan 20, 2021 | Rob Otto
2021-01-24 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo football model, the Bills are likely to fail on the road with a 58.9% chance of being correct against the Chiefs.
Based on the montecarlo model, the Bills have an average of 19.3 points for the game. Our model forecasts Bills will pass for 1.4 touchdowns and 0.1 interception against the Chiefs defense on a forecasted 23.8 competitions with 38.6 attempts for 254.3 yards. The model predicts the Bills will rush on 23.8 attempts against the Chiefs with an estimated total of 128.7 yards and 0.8 running touchdowns.
The Chiefs are estimated to score 23.8 points at home. The Snoozle football model estimates the Chiefs will throw 28.9 competitions on 43.3 attempts against the Bills with an estimated 0.1 interception for a total of 317.7 yards and 1.9 passing touchdowns. The Chiefs are forecast to rush for 132.8 yards on 26.0 attempts with an estimated 0.8 rushing touchdowns.
According to the odds and a forecasted 52.6% chance to beat the -3.0 point spread, the Chiefs are the best value. Based on the over(-110)/under(-110) odds, the 53.5 runs for this line, and our model's predicted combined score estimate, there is no good over/under value.
Posted at Wed, January 20, 2021 13:00:40 UTC