The Home Bills's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Broncos

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-11-24 -- The Bills change of losing to the Broncos is 50.4% based on our model.

At home, the Bills are forecast to score 15.6 points. The Bills are expected to throw for 0.8 touchdowns with 35.5 pass attempts with 19.1 competitions for 184.2 yards, and an estimated 1.8 interceptions. The Bills are predicted from the model to run for 0.8 touchdowns against Broncos with 30.7 rush attempts for 155.1 yards.

On the road, the Broncos are forecast to score 16.2 points against Bills. The Broncos are predicted from the model to throw for 194.9 yards on 39.6 attempts for 21.4 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 0.9 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions. The Broncos are estimated from the model to rush for 0.7 touchdowns against Bills with 26.0 rush attempts for 134.7 yards.

Based on a predicted 65.1% probability to cover a +4.0 spread, the Broncos are the best value for the ATS bets. With an over/under of 37.0 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 63.7% over likelihood and -110 odds.

Posted at Thu, November 21, 2019 13:08:43 UTC