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Royals Predicted to Fall at Home to Mets Despite Jorge Soler's Effort

Sat, Aug 17, 2019 | Emma Botos

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Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets, July 31, 2016.
D. Benjamin Miller License

August 17, 2019 -- The Royals have a 72.38% likelihood to fall to the Mets with a based on our model.

Likely starting pitcher Jake Junis for the Royals will be matched up with the Mets probable starter Jacob deGrom. Our model forecasts the Royals pitcher will have an outing for 6.489 innings, allowing 2.691 earned runs, with a 2.717 walks. The Mets starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 23.495 outs, allow 1.621 earned runs, and a 0.055 probability of a complete game.

In a hitting matchup, Jorge Soler of the Royals will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Pete Alonso. Based on the Snoozle model, Jorge Soler RF is predicted to have 0.591 RBIs and score 0.418 runs over an estimated 3.786 at-bats. Pete Alonso is forecast to bring in 0.875 RBIs and 0.792 runs scored, with an 0.381 OBP and 1.238 Ks.

The Mets are the best value for the money line based on the -210 odds and a forecasted 72.38% win estimate. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 58.38% over estimate and -110 line odds for 8.5 runs.

Posted at Sat, August 17, 2019 13:06:34 UTC