Sun, Jun 26, 2016 | Greg Wagner
We are happy to announce the initial release of our Monte Carlo MLB simulator predictions page.
This simulator uses the daily lineups and statistics of the day's match ups for a simulator that runs thousands of times with random variation to estimate the probabilities of the outcomes for the day's games.
This predictor has the advantages over many other prediction techniques, like handicappers and ELON scores, using Monte Carlo simulations. With the Snoozle predictions, not only are the probabilities of a winner made, but the probability of the over/under are calculated, as well. When combined with our betting optimization tool, intelligently allocated action will maximize users returns.
Using historic money line (ML) and over/under data, for the 2015 season, the ML performance of the algorithm was on par with the what the sports books were predicting, but the over/under outperformed the sports books. Using the O/U only predictions for 2015 season combined with my bet optimization, during a simulated season the bankroll started with 1000 units and ended the season with 844997.52 units. I have posted the daily sum transactional log and the final summary. These were optimistic results since the statistics used were the end of the season stats. For the daily posted predictions, the pitcher and hitters statistics used are the latest available from the day before the predictions.