Kyle Lewis's Stick is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Mariners Over the Astros

Wed, Sep 25, 2019 | Emma Botos


Zack Greinke
jnashboulden on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 25, 2019 -- The Mariners under perform at home with a 74.23% chance to lose against the Astros based on our model.

The hosting Mariners have Yusei Kikuchi in the rotation against the Astros's pitcher Zack Greinke. The Mariners starting hurler is predicted to throw for 19.802 outs, allow 3.565 earned runs, and a 0.002 probability of a complete game. The Snoozle model estimates the Astros pitcher will have an outing for 6.826 innings, allowing 2.203 earned runs, with 2.786 walks.

In a hitting matchup, Kyle Lewis of the Mariners will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger George Springer. The Mariners's Kyle Lewis is estimated to score 0.576 runs, 0.731 RBIs and have a 0.304 OBP. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, George Springer is predicted to bat for 0.307 with 0.913 RBIs and 1.047 runs scored.

For this matchup Mariners are the best value on the money line bets with on the +293 home ML odds and a forecasted 25.77% chance to win. With an over/under of 9.0 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 61.74% over likelihood and -114 odds.

Posted at Wed, September 25, 2019 13:05:25 UTC